Home > Recession?


November 5th, 2019 at 10:25 am

Yesterday was a great day, no spend day and no dining out.

I sold an item on Poshmark as well.

I have a question, do you all think they’ll be another recession? If so, what do you think will be the cause? I saw this question on Twitter and was wondering everyone’s thoughts.
I personally think it will be a recession caused by fear. I’ve noticed that the job search has slowed down, people are staying put, it also seems as though people are buying less. I don’t know, I’m no economist

16 Responses to “Recession?”

  1. Carol Says:

    There probably will be...that seems to be part of the nature of our system, capitalism. I tend to agree with you that fear will be at least part of it. I think I 've heard or read that economists only determine the trigger event after the fact. I think all we ordinary folk can do is normal saving advice stuff: pay down debt, or not take it on, have an emergency fund and so on.
    It's an interesting question, though, can we talk ourselves into fear and hence, a recession?

  2. Amber Says:

    @Carol I think we can talk ourselves into one, fear is a powerful thing

  3. creditcardfree Says:

    No idea what the trigger will be. Economy is good now. It would have to decline significantly for a period of six months to be defined a recession. Unemployment low across all demographics. I believe more jobs are still being created. Yep,
    Text is here's the link and Link is
    here's the link to Bureau of Labor Statistics.

    The reporting you are seeing is to create fear that the economy is bad in the run up to an election. So yes, if people believe the news and make decisions without investigating than those fears could cause problems, but that would have to be a lot of business owners that don't generally make their decisions just looking at the news.

  4. Smallsteps Says:

    There are tons of articles that IMO have tried way too hard to search for and create problems. Sad they think all readers are too stupid to notice that often the conclusions they make simply do not add up.

    I can barely read any of them anymore as it is frustrating and too many items are "if this" and "IF that" or based on "one time this happened".

    I just read one that simply made zero sense. They seemed upset that in my area people are not eating out, buying cars etc, etc.
    Later in article stated savings rates are up and people are focused on paying debt. So from the slant i am supposed to think " savings and debt reduction bad" go to spend spend spend to SAVE the economy

  5. Amber Says:

    fear appears to a factor, and that’s too bad. For me I’m just trucking along, paying down debt, saving, getting my feet wet with investments and going to work until I’m told differently.

    We’ll have to just watch and see.

  6. Lots of Ideas Says:

    I expect that the economy will be affected by both impeachment and the election. I think there has already been market manipulation around the China tariffs and we will see more of that in the next 15 months.

    The amount of debt that has been taken on by the government will catch up with us. The damage to farmers will not be easy to repair.
    The cost of cleanup after environmental issues like fires, hurricanes, flooding will cause insurance rates to rise.

    Solutions to student loan debt, changes to the health care system, and deferred work on infrastructure will all affect the economy in some way, whether we take action or not.

    The best way to protect yourself is to eliminate debt, have savings outside the stock market and to understand market cycles and not pull out when the market goes down.

    Fear does drive recession - I think 2008 was much worse than it should have been because so many people retrenched. But I think that will happen again.

  7. Petunia 100 Says:

    Yes, there will be another recession; there has to be as it is part of the economic cycle. When is anyone's guess.

  8. Lucky Robin Says:

    The numbers just aren't there. The economy is soaring. Say what you will about Trump, but he has been great for the economy no matter how the media tries to spin it. I think they want to wish a bad economy into being, to be honest. They want a bad economy because it is the only way the president won't get re-elected and they are more scared of that than about anything else in the world, so tanking the stock market seems like a goal to them. Because when it all comes down to it, people might believe in this, that or the other thing, but most will still vote on their pocketbooks nearly every time. If it is prosperous, they want to keep it. If it isn't they want change. And if the Dems can't put up a viable candidate, they really aren't going to want change enough to tamper with what we have now.

  9. ceejay74 Says:

    Yeah, there are warning signs in some industries that I'm involved in. My main client is said to be a belweather of economic conditions and their stock has plummeted recently. My company has had to lay off a bunch of people because we depend on that client for a good deal of our revenue. The trade wars are really bad for several industries, businesses aren't investing their tax cut money back into the economy, wages are stagnant. I think it's coming.

  10. Jane Says:

    I don't necessarily think it will come soon, but eventually there is going to be a reckoning for the amount of credit card and student loan debt held by people with no realistic chance of paying it back. It seems similar to the subprime mortgage crisis, except there are no real assets backing up this debt

  11. disneysteve Says:

    There will absolutely, positively, 100% be a recession. That's how the system works. When is anyone's guess. No one thing will trigger it but rather a confluence of things. The trade war is a big problem right now. I'll refrain from any political comments but let's just say that our elected leaders need to figure that out. Lucky Robin is correct that unfortunately, the number one thing that drives people's votes is the state of their economy, even though the President has little to nothing to do with that. If people feel confident and secure, they vote for the status quo no matter what else may be going on.

    Keep in mind that it isn't officially a recession until there have been 2 quarters of negative growth so a recession is more than 6 months old before you know it is actually a recession.

    I don't believe in trying to time the market but we have been building our cash position over the past year or so. I've also focused a little more on dividend-producing stocks and a little less on growth as I do think growth is going to slow. My 401k contributions go into a balanced fund that is 60/40 so little by little, our asset allocation has been getting more conservative as my 401k balance has grown.

  12. Amber Says:

    Thanks everyone, I thought this was an interesting question. I agree, there’s a number of factors, and I totally forgot about the students loans. Just a matter of when

  13. Milly Says:

    The subprime mortgage market was about $1.3 trillion in 2007. By August 2007, the default rate was up to 8%, peaking at about 20% a year later.
    Compare this to the student loans, a market of $1.6 trillion with a current default rate at about 10%. This very well could be the trigger, but the real reason for the crisis is instability, not the trigger.
    The analogy I hear is snow packs on a mountain. There's no sense in wondering which snowflake will cause the avalanche and bracing for it. It's coming down one way or another. It would take quite the careful orchestration to bring the snow down in a controlled program. Just leave the valley by diversifying.
    Note: when I say diversify, a portfolio of a thousand different stocks, especially if they are all dollar denominated, is not diverse. Invest in multiple asset classes(real estate, foreign stocks, commodities, gainful personal development, etc). Particularly focus on things that will always have value.

  14. Fern Says:

    From what I've heard, there's a good chance we'll experience a recession sometime in 2020. And while I don't believe a US president really affects the stock market (stock market performance has more to do with unemployment numbers, the GDP, inflation, natural disasters and so on), his impeachment most certainly will. The market abhors uncertainty, and there is nothing that causes more uncertainty than a president who has lost the confidence of Congress.

  15. LivingAlmostLarge Says:

    100% it will happen. I think that it will be a lot of different factors all happening at the same time.

    Markets been good to us but realistically I think a lot of companies (looking at uber/lyft/weworks), etc are running up the stock market on nothing but crap. Are they worth something? Yes but I have a bad feeling that we are sending stocks to highs they don't deserve and I'm not entirely sure it's not imitating the bubble. I mean even AMZN is trading at like 250x earnings.

    And there is a lot of EBITDA, so companies aren't really making money but they are "making" money if you don't count interest, taxes, depreciation, amoritization. I don't want to be negative but Weworks is a pretty clear case of a ponzi scheme and yet they re still a "company" and there are others that are NOT profitable but these Venture Capitalists keep throwing more and more money at it.

    I'm not economist or investor but it seems crazy to be honest. I like making money and I don't plan on pulling out no matter what but I wonder when we do pay the piper?

  16. terri77 Says:

    Yes, there will be. The economy works in cycles. Not sure when the next one will be, but it’s best to always be prepared. I am focusing on storing up cash in 2020, though my job is highly secure.

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